Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  24.1  19.2  15.7  13.7  17.0  15.0  20.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.7  12.7  11.1  11.1   0.8  -0.6  -0.6  -2.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -15.0 -23.0   5.0  34.0  35.0  14.0 -59.0  U  U VU  U  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  65.0  61.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   1.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.40

 EP072024 240822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.