Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  18.4  15.4  14.4  16.8  17.9  19.8  25.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.1  16.1  16.1   5.8   4.4   4.4  -4.5  -3.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -34.0   3.0  27.0  51.0   3.0 -32.0 -30.0 VU VU  U  U  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  58.0  54.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  41.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   9.0   6.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.08

 EP072024 240823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.