Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  21.4  19.2  18.2  17.8  20.5  22.9  29.5  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.1  21.1  21.1  10.8   9.4   9.4   0.5   1.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  -1.0  22.0  34.0  13.0 -17.0 -14.0 -11.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  43.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   3.0   1.0   6.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.06

 EP072024 240823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.