Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  19.4  16.8  18.1  17.1  22.4  27.1  28.1  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.1  26.1  26.1  14.4  14.4  14.4  13.0   6.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -21.0   8.0  15.0  30.0 -21.0 -16.0 -26.0 -25.0 VU  U  U  N VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  44.0  42.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   8.0   5.0  10.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.04

 EP072024 240823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.