Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  17.1  17.0  16.1  17.4  21.3  25.4  27.9  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.1  31.1  29.6  19.4  19.4  18.0  18.0  11.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  21.0  33.0  35.0   1.0 -25.0 -18.0   2.0  U  U  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  41.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.02

 EP072024 240824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.