Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  15.4  14.9  13.3  18.4  24.4  27.2  27.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.1  34.6  24.4  24.4  23.0  23.0  23.0  16.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  10.0  17.0  -9.0 -14.0 -12.0 -25.0 -27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  49.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  41.0  40.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   8.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.86

 EP072024 240824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.