Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240824 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 68.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 15.2 12.6 14.7 18.3 22.5 24.5 24.1 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.6 38.0 38.0 29.4 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 24.0 9.0 -13.0 -5.0 -49.0 -5.0 -10.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 47.0 46.0 43.0 41.0 40.0 42.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.94 EP072024 240824 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 129.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.