Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  11.9  13.9  16.5  20.3  21.4  21.1  21.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.0  33.0  33.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0 -11.0 -11.0 -48.0 -33.0 -33.0 -43.0 -16.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  45.0  44.0  42.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        2.1%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.88

 EP072024 240824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.