Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  15.3  17.5  19.6  22.5  22.8  22.7  22.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -5.6  -5.6  -5.6  -5.6  -7.0  -7.0  -5.6  -8.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -25.0 -31.0 -40.0  -9.0 -18.0 -21.0   4.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  40.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   6.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.54

 EP072024 240825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.