Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  24.1  27.0  27.6  24.3  23.8  25.1  25.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.4  23.0  23.0  23.0  24.4  21.7  24.4  27.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -35.0 -44.0 -39.0 -24.0  21.0 -15.0   0.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  46.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0  10.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.0%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.34

 EP072024 240826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.