Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    136.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  27.8  27.9  26.2  24.5  23.7  26.6  28.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  14.4  13.0  15.8  15.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -26.0 -46.0 -12.0  33.0  -2.0   7.0   6.0 VU VU VU  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  44.0  45.0  48.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  12.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   3.0   6.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.32

 EP072024 240826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    136.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.