Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    138.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     35.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  26.7  21.8  20.7  20.4  25.2  29.1  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         18.0  18.0  19.4  20.8  19.4  22.2  22.2  26.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -10.0   0.0  10.0   5.0  -5.0   0.0 -23.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  38.0  38.0  40.0  43.0  44.0  42.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0   8.0   9.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   2.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.36

 EP072024 240827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    138.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.