Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  23.5  22.7  24.6  22.2  23.8  31.1  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.4  34.4  35.8  37.2  35.8  40.0  41.5  43.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  19.0  12.0   4.0   6.0  11.0 -18.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  37.0  39.0  41.0  43.0  46.0  42.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.44

 EP072024 240827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    140.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.