Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240827 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 141.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.20 F TC SIZE [%] 45.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.5 21.7 23.9 22.0 23.3 26.4 33.9 35.7 N N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.4 55.8 57.2 54.4 58.6 60.0 63.0 66.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 10.0 -6.0 -3.0 -4.0 2.0 28.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 35.0 37.0 39.0 41.0 43.0 43.0 44.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 1.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.46 EP072024 240827 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 141.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.