Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    142.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  21.3  19.1  19.3  21.4  27.5  34.8  37.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.2  68.6  67.2  67.2  71.5  71.5  76.1  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -2.0 -28.0  -5.0 -15.0 -10.0  12.0  17.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  38.0  39.0  40.0  43.0  43.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.60

 EP072024 240828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    142.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.