Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240828 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.5 19.9 18.4 18.7 23.9 31.5 35.4 40.9 N N F N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 68.6 70.0 71.5 68.6 73.0 74.6 81.0 82.7 U U U U U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 -23.0 -25.0 -37.0 -4.0 8.0 -9.0 13.0 U VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 40.0 42.0 44.0 44.0 43.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 7.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.74 EP072024 240828 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.