Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  18.5  19.3  19.3  26.0  33.6  37.3  39.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  72.2  73.6  76.5  76.5  82.7  86.0  89.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -33.0 -21.0  -1.0 -21.0   7.0  20.0  27.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  39.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   7.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.74

 EP072024 240828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.