Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240829 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 147.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 43.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.4 21.3 23.7 27.5 36.6 41.5 41.3 26.6 N N N N U VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.6 81.5 84.6 84.6 87.7 91.0 94.4 96.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -42.0 -27.0 -18.0 -19.0 8.0 35.0 23.0 39.0 VU VU U U U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 40.0 41.0 41.0 43.0 43.0 45.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.88 EP072024 240829 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 147.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.