Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240829 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 148.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 23.9 27.0 31.9 39.7 43.5 35.8 25.6 N N N U U VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 11.0 18.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.0 84.6 84.6 86.1 87.7 91.0 92.7 94.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -26.0 -11.0 -27.0 -6.0 19.0 22.0 7.0 -39.0 VU U VU U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 40.0 41.0 41.0 42.0 43.0 44.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.02 EP072024 240829 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 148.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.