Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    150.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  28.9  33.8  38.2  44.2  43.3  43.3  43.3  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  89.6  91.1  92.7  97.7  99.4  99.4  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -13.0   8.0   9.0  36.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  38.0  37.0  38.0  39.0  43.0  43.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.14

 EP072024 240829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    150.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.