Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240829 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 151.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.1 34.3 38.6 41.3 45.4 40.8 40.8 40.8 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 9.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.6 91.1 91.1 92.7 96.0 97.7 97.7 97.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 41.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 37.0 37.0 38.0 40.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.14 EP072024 240829 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 151.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.