Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092024 240912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  22.7  21.9  19.7  20.7  30.4  33.3  37.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  24.0  24.0  22.0  21.0  29.0  33.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  25.0 -25.0   3.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       20.4%       11.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%       10.1%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        9.2%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        8.9%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       28.3%       15.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.3%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%       12.2%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        6.7%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%       10.0%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 EP092024 240912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  22.7  21.9  19.7  20.7  30.4  33.3  37.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%