Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240912 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 107.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 19.4 18.0 17.1 30.8 36.1 41.3 41.5 N N F F U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 23.0 19.0 18.0 22.0 34.0 37.0 33.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 14.0 14.0 17.0 -13.0 -33.0 -26.0 0.0 U U U U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 58.0 58.0 55.0 50.0 49.0 43.0 39.0 N U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -5.0 -4.0 0.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 5.7% 4.0% 25kt / 24h 11.6% 38.6% 25.1% 30kt / 24h 6.9% 24.6% 15.7% 35kt / 24h 6.9% 24.6% 15.7% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 23.3% 11.9% 45kt / 36h 5.1% 36.7% 20.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 18.7% 9.4% 55kt / 48h 3.5% 12.1% 7.8% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 7.0% 3.6% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 6.9% 4.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.86 EP092024 240912 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 107.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 19.4 18.0 17.1 30.8 36.1 41.3 41.5 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 58.0 58.0 55.0 50.0 49.0 43.0 39.0 N F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -5.0 -4.0 0.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%