Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092024 240913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  17.4  19.6  25.0  35.5  37.2  44.1  44.5  N  F  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  19.0  19.0  17.0  27.0  37.0  39.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  19.0  11.0   3.0  -7.0  -1.0 -23.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  41.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%        9.9%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h       15.4%       42.5%       29.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.5%       29.4%       21.0%
 35kt / 24h       12.5%       29.4%       21.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       28.4%       15.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       35.3%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.0%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%       10.4%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        6.1%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 EP092024 240913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    108.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  17.4  19.6  25.0  35.5  37.2  44.1  44.5  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  47.0  41.0  39.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%