Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240913 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 108.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.3 17.8 20.0 26.6 32.3 39.6 41.5 45.8 F F N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 20.0 19.0 22.0 31.0 38.0 41.0 40.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 4.0 22.0 7.0 -1.0 -20.0 -17.0 10.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 54.0 51.0 49.0 41.0 36.0 31.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 N F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.8% 5.4% 4.1% 25kt / 24h 6.8% 26.1% 16.4% 30kt / 24h 4.7% 14.0% 9.4% 35kt / 24h 3.2% 14.0% 8.6% 40kt / 24h 1.3% 14.0% 7.7% 45kt / 36h 3.7% 18.7% 11.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.8% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 1.1% 5.6% 3.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 2.4% 1.3% 65kt / 72h 1.2% 2.8% 2.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 EP092024 240913 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 108.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.3 17.8 20.0 26.6 32.3 39.6 41.5 45.8 U N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 55.0 54.0 51.0 49.0 41.0 36.0 31.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -2.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%