Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240913 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.90 109.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 79.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 19.6 25.3 32.4 35.8 42.8 38.0 38.0 F N N U U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 19.0 24.0 27.0 33.0 39.0 41.0 41.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 17.0 12.0 -4.0 -11.0 -17.0 -24.0 -24.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 50.0 49.0 45.0 38.0 34.0 34.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 6.6% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 6.8% 28.7% 17.7% 30kt / 24h 3.2% 18.3% 10.7% 35kt / 24h 2.7% 18.3% 10.5% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 16.6% 8.6% 45kt / 36h 2.3% 20.0% 11.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.0% 4.0% 55kt / 48h 1.0% 6.2% 3.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 2.3% 1.2% 65kt / 72h 1.4% 3.6% 2.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.40 EP092024 240913 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.90 109.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 19.6 25.3 32.4 35.8 42.8 38.0 38.0 N N N N F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 50.0 49.0 45.0 38.0 34.0 34.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%