Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240913 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 109.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.3 23.1 27.0 30.0 38.5 40.8 44.1 44.1 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 23.0 26.0 30.0 34.0 40.0 41.0 41.0 U U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 5.0 -5.0 0.0 6.0 -3.0 25.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 52.0 51.0 48.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 30.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 3.6% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 3.9% 18.1% 11.0% 30kt / 24h 1.9% 9.5% 5.7% 35kt / 24h 1.9% 9.1% 5.5% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 8.9% 4.6% 45kt / 36h 0.9% 11.0% 6.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.6% 1.8% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 3.6% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 EP092024 240913 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 109.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.3 23.1 27.0 30.0 38.5 40.8 44.1 44.1 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 52.0 51.0 48.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 30.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%