Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240914 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 109.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.5 25.2 29.0 32.0 38.5 35.8 50.1 50.1 N N N U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 28.0 31.0 33.0 38.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 U U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 20.0 7.0 18.0 -16.0 -26.0 10.0 10.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 48.0 45.0 37.0 34.0 29.0 29.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 7.8% 4.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 3.2% 1.7% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.7% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.7% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.5% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 1.7% 1.1% 1.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.92 EP092024 240914 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 109.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.5 25.2 29.0 32.0 38.5 35.8 50.1 50.1 N N N N F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 48.0 45.0 37.0 34.0 29.0 29.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%