Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240914 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 109.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 29.7 32.3 35.8 38.5 44.2 44.2 44.2 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 40.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 U U U U N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 -2.0 20.0 9.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 47.0 44.0 39.0 33.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.8% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.9% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 1.9% 0.9% 1.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.40 EP092024 240914 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 109.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 29.7 32.3 35.8 38.5 44.2 44.2 44.2 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 47.0 44.0 39.0 33.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%