Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092024 240914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  30.6  34.1  37.4  37.6  50.4  50.4  50.4  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  34.0  37.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  29.0   4.0  -5.0 -22.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  N  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  44.0  38.0  35.0  30.0  26.0  26.0  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        0.5%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.74

 EP092024 240914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  30.6  34.1  37.4  37.6  50.4  50.4  50.4  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  44.0  38.0  35.0  30.0  26.0  26.0  26.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%