Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240914 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.30 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 34.8 38.3 39.6 41.7 51.8 51.8 51.8 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 32.0 35.0 37.0 38.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 30.0 13.0 -4.0 -2.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 U N U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 39.0 35.0 32.0 29.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.8% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.2% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 0.5% 0.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.00 EP092024 240914 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.30 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 34.8 38.3 39.6 41.7 51.8 51.8 51.8 N F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 39.0 35.0 32.0 29.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%