Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240915 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.3 34.3 34.5 34.3 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 33.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 U U U U N N N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 12.0 3.0 -15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 37.0 34.0 32.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 5.6% 3.2% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 1.6% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 1.6% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.0% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 1.8% 0.7% 1.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.00 EP092024 240915 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.3 34.3 34.5 34.3 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 N F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 37.0 34.0 32.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%