Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092024 240915 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 109.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 32.5 33.6 40.3 53.9 53.9 53.9 53.9 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 34.0 39.0 40.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 U U U N N N N N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 15.0 -14.0 7.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 33.0 30.0 27.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 1.6% 0.2% 0.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.56 EP092024 240915 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 109.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 32.5 33.6 40.3 53.9 53.9 53.9 53.9 F N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 33.0 30.0 27.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.7% 0.1% 0.4%