Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102024 240922 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 98.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 21.9 21.0 20.2 18.7 14.6 17.2 15.5 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 33.0 32.0 26.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 74.0 68.0 64.0 116.0 155.0 108.0 125.0 N N N N F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 69.0 72.0 74.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 71.0 N N N N F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -5.0 -3.0 -4.0 0.0 N N N N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 3.2% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 11.3% 32.4% 21.9% 30kt / 24h 4.3% 16.6% 10.5% 35kt / 24h 1.8% 16.0% 8.9% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 15.7% 8.5% 45kt / 36h 9.8% 46.0% 27.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 24.2% 12.1% 55kt / 48h 25.4% 36.7% 31.1% 70kt / 48h 10.6% 28.9% 19.7% 65kt / 72h 43.8% 58.0% 50.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.38 EP102024 240922 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 98.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 21.9 21.0 20.2 18.7 14.6 17.2 15.5 N N N N N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 69.0 72.0 74.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 71.0 N N N N U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -5.0 -3.0 -4.0 0.0 N N N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%