Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.7  26.5  21.7  17.4  17.2  16.0  13.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  30.0  31.0  32.0  33.0  28.0  25.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0  84.0 106.0  72.0 133.0 153.0  94.0  75.0  F  N  F  N VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.7%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       27.8%       19.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%       12.6%        8.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       11.9%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       11.9%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.7%       41.5%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.4%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h       25.8%       33.1%       29.4%
 70kt / 48h       13.0%       26.1%       19.5%
 65kt / 72h       42.6%       55.4%       49.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 EP102024 240923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.7  26.5  21.7  17.4  17.2  16.0  13.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%