Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     98.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  27.3  21.9  17.8  17.3  20.9  19.1  15.3  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  31.0  32.0  33.0  32.0  26.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  76.0  70.0  73.0 127.0 119.0  93.0 111.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -8.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        6.5%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h       28.2%       47.8%       38.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.5%       31.4%       22.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.4%       31.4%       19.9%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       30.3%       17.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.0%       57.6%       40.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.6%       17.8%
 55kt / 48h       28.5%       40.6%       34.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.1%       31.5%       21.3%
 65kt / 72h       32.2%       50.7%       41.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 EP102024 240923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     98.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  27.3  21.9  17.8  17.3  20.9  19.1  15.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -8.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%