Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  22.1  16.9  16.0  11.6  17.8  17.8  17.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  33.0  32.0  29.0  24.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  68.0  79.0 104.0 136.0 132.0 132.0 132.0  N  N  N  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0   5.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.9%       29.3%       39.1%
 25kt / 24h       69.3%       78.0%       73.6%
 30kt / 24h       55.5%       76.3%       65.9%
 35kt / 24h       53.0%       76.3%       64.7%
 40kt / 24h       47.0%       73.9%       60.5%
 45kt / 36h       54.1%       77.2%       65.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       64.4%       32.2%
 55kt / 48h       42.7%       61.9%       52.3%
 70kt / 48h       14.7%       44.7%       29.7%
 65kt / 72h       27.9%       46.1%       37.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP102024 240923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  22.1  16.9  16.0  11.6  17.8  17.8  17.8  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -5.0  -3.0   5.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%