Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     98.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  18.4  18.9  18.0  15.6  17.6  17.6  17.6  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  30.0  27.0  23.0  20.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  83.0 103.0 130.0  79.0 168.0 168.0 168.0  N  N  F  F  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       73.3%       44.7%       59.0%
 25kt / 24h       80.2%       80.7%       80.5%
 30kt / 24h       80.2%       80.7%       80.5%
 35kt / 24h       80.2%       80.7%       80.5%
 40kt / 24h       80.2%       78.8%       79.5%
 45kt / 36h       70.8%       64.7%       67.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       48.7%       24.4%
 55kt / 48h       37.6%       47.1%       42.3%
 70kt / 48h       11.6%       24.1%       17.9%
 65kt / 72h       20.6%       24.2%       22.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 EP102024 240923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     98.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  18.4  18.9  18.0  15.6  17.6  17.6  17.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%