Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  20.0  17.3  13.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  21.0  20.0  19.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0  87.0 119.0 146.0 124.0 124.0 124.0 124.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.7%       21.9%       40.8%
 25kt / 24h       57.5%       50.2%       53.9%
 30kt / 24h       46.5%       45.1%       45.8%
 35kt / 24h       45.4%       45.1%       45.2%
 40kt / 24h       45.4%       44.1%       44.7%
 45kt / 36h       84.4%       40.0%       62.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.2%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       23.7%       13.7%       18.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 EP102024 240924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  20.0  17.3  13.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  15.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%