Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     99.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  14.1  14.4  16.3  16.3  16.3  16.3  16.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  14.0   5.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  81.0 108.0 118.0 118.0 118.0 118.0 118.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.7%       16.9%       21.8%
 25kt / 24h       47.6%       51.7%       49.6%
 30kt / 24h       32.1%       49.8%       40.9%
 35kt / 24h       30.8%       49.8%       40.3%
 40kt / 24h       30.8%       47.7%       39.3%
 45kt / 36h       48.7%       28.2%       38.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.6%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h       21.6%       21.3%       21.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       11.2%        8.3%        9.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 EP102024 240924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     99.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  14.1  14.4  16.3  16.3  16.3  16.3  16.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%