Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    100.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -55.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  15.3  15.5  15.8  16.9  15.5  18.9  20.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  22.0  26.0  30.0  29.0  23.0  16.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0 121.0 127.0  78.0 139.0 145.0 118.0 116.0  N  F  F  N VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   7.0   3.0  10.0  10.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        2.0%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h       41.9%        1.2%       21.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 EP102024 240924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    100.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -55.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  15.3  15.5  15.8  16.9  15.5  18.9  20.1  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   7.0   3.0  10.0  10.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%