Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  19.8  20.7  20.8  28.8  28.9  28.9  28.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  34.0  30.0  27.0  18.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 105.0 156.0 128.0  89.0 117.0 117.0 117.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   9.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.2%       19.1%       18.7%
 25kt / 24h       59.8%       70.5%       65.2%
 30kt / 24h       35.8%       58.0%       46.9%
 35kt / 24h       24.0%       58.0%       41.0%
 40kt / 24h       24.0%       57.3%       40.7%
 45kt / 36h       34.7%       64.6%       49.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       43.0%       21.5%
 55kt / 48h       24.5%       37.4%       31.0%
 70kt / 48h       10.5%       24.6%       17.5%
 65kt / 72h       21.7%       27.0%       24.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 EP102024 240925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  19.8  20.7  20.8  28.8  28.9  28.9  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   9.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%