Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     70.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  22.5  23.8  23.3  27.4  34.0  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  28.0  25.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 123.0 113.0 143.0  64.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  F  F  F VF  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   7.0   6.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.1%       35.9%       42.0%
 25kt / 24h       75.1%       80.7%       77.9%
 30kt / 24h       55.5%       77.2%       66.4%
 35kt / 24h       50.1%       77.2%       63.6%
 40kt / 24h       41.9%       74.9%       58.4%
 45kt / 36h       43.0%       71.3%       57.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       54.0%       27.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.8%       39.3%       31.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%       23.1%       14.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%       16.6%       12.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 EP102024 240926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  22.5  23.8  23.3  27.4  34.0  34.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   7.0   6.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%