Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102024 240926 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 102.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 85.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 25.9 25.1 28.7 34.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 N N N N U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 30.0 27.0 24.0 22.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 105.0 107.0 75.0 54.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 F F F N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 7.0 8.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 43.6% 28.4% 36.0% 25kt / 24h 63.2% 70.6% 66.9% 30kt / 24h 46.1% 66.6% 56.3% 35kt / 24h 46.1% 66.6% 56.3% 40kt / 24h 26.9% 63.2% 45.1% 45kt / 36h 29.3% 48.4% 38.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 27.8% 13.9% 55kt / 48h 12.8% 24.8% 18.8% 70kt / 48h 1.8% 10.1% 5.9% 65kt / 72h 5.7% 11.3% 8.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 EP102024 240926 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 102.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 25.9 25.1 28.7 34.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 N N N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 7.0 8.0 7.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%