Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.9  25.1  27.8  21.8  25.5  27.2  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  23.0  20.0  19.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0 110.0  59.0  36.0  78.0  96.0  11.0  11.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  54.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0   3.0   7.0   5.0   5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.7%       15.2%       19.9%
 25kt / 24h       40.0%       47.5%       43.7%
 30kt / 24h       27.2%       39.4%       33.3%
 35kt / 24h       27.2%       39.4%       33.3%
 40kt / 24h       14.4%       38.4%       26.4%
 45kt / 36h       23.1%       26.2%       24.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.1%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        9.9%       18.1%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        4.7%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%        6.0%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 EP102024 240926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    102.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  25.9  25.1  27.8  21.8  25.5  27.2  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  54.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  10.0   3.0   7.0   5.0   5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%