Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  30.8  32.6  30.2  30.0  25.8  23.8  23.8  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  21.0  23.0  26.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  71.0  29.0  68.0  46.0 110.0   9.0   9.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  11.0  10.0   3.0   7.0   1.0  -5.0  -5.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%        2.9%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h        9.4%       12.5%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%        6.5%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%        6.5%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        6.5%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%        4.2%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        3.7%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        1.6%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 EP102024 240926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  30.8  32.6  30.2  30.0  25.8  23.8  23.8  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  11.0  10.0   3.0   7.0   1.0  -5.0  -5.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%