Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    103.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  32.4  30.6  27.2  24.8  23.9  25.3  25.3  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  23.0  26.0  27.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  49.0  71.0  79.0  62.0  90.0  -7.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.0%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        6.7%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.8%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.8%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        2.1%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        2.7%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        1.1%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 EP102024 240927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    103.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  32.4  30.6  27.2  24.8  23.9  25.3  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%