Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  34.1  30.9  33.5  25.6  25.9  30.4  30.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  27.0  36.0  33.0  27.0  23.0  27.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 109.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  56.0  82.0  37.0  66.0  28.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0   3.0   7.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.3%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        0.9%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP102024 240927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  34.1  30.9  33.5  25.6  25.9  30.4  30.4  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0   3.0   7.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%