Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    102.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  32.9  34.9  31.6  33.5  22.6  22.6  22.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  27.0  27.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  84.0  52.0  27.0  82.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   5.0   6.0   7.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        0.9%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP102024 240927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    102.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  32.9  34.9  31.6  33.5  22.6  22.6  22.6  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   5.0   6.0   7.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%