Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102024 240927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  29.6  31.4  34.1  25.3  22.4  22.4  22.4  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  29.0  28.0  27.0  23.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 129.3 129.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  54.0  22.0  30.0  33.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   1.0   5.0   3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        1.1%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP102024 240927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  29.6  31.4  34.1  25.3  22.4  22.4  22.4  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   1.0   5.0   3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%